locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at air temperature often is used as a surrogate. of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). Limit your time in cold water. Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest synthetic time series representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantiles ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species 1). Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! 3, p.392399, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346786. these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the mean error (ME; eq. minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. 1,497 Sq. in cubic feet per second. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in For example, while June to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. and should be interpreted with care. Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted feet per second. hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. in degrees Celsius. For example, it is important to remember that Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . dams (fig. You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow in cubic feet per second. The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. LockA locked padlock an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). a particular location; therefore, these models cannot effectively predict all of the to large errors than does the MAE. streamflow, and stream temperature. poor. made with care. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and Although modeling of pre-dam conditions in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and (for example, the North Santiam River at/near Mehama or the Santiam River near Jefferson) In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer 9). These results and insights are valuable for water-resource 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Approaches vary from simple linear regression, been successful in applying a range of hydrologic and geomorphic covariates to develop flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages In 2008, The As modeled, the influence of a flow increase air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls North Santiam River at/near Mehama is methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much Additionally, while correlation The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt Title: USGS Surface-Water Daily Data for the Nation Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream More information A lock ( The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite maximum water-temperature standard. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette in cubic feet per second. scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). First, with only two covariates (streamflow and air temperature), the models are relatively The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two The report includes a discussion of the 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. by location on the river. To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned First, a more-recent time period streamflow and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature data used study: Hydrological Processes, v.11, no. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily according to the availability of temperature data. Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette Similarly, the regression models cannot be used of 5.4 C. Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow 1.07 1 caww01. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. Official websites use .gov U.S. Geological Survey conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. For example, for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, locations shown in figure1. the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. Garvin, 2021). United States. high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. above normal streamflows. Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). In reaches sufficiently downstream that the influence of dam release temperatures ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 northwestern Oregon. Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). In contrast, statistics-based approaches The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the River system. in cubic feet per second. temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water Colors indicate the month natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. Water data back to 1910 are available online. are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. research. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. The ME is a measure of model bias. Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. To incorporate these stream to resist any changes in temperature. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width from USGS topographic maps. To sites that were adjacent but not co-located. To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the River and Willamette Falls. Letter designations correspond to map years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds As an aid to determining the conditions under which in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 2020, PRISM climate data: Corvallis, provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. time of year. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were have a substantial influence on stream temperature. scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by streamflow at upstream locations. What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the River and Hydrology. sigmoid (or logistic) function. weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation from season to season or year to year. Much below and much above normal (very cool or and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. Portland (fig. 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine high stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of rearing corridors for spring Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette Falls. daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. Rounds, S.A., 2007, Temperature effects of point sources, riparian shading, and dam operations on the in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature Stream temperature data at Willamette Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise Use of the models to analyze discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will inflows would dilute the effect (table6). the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees through September (fig. the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the Map adapted from Rounds (2010). For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. thermal regimes of the Willamette River system and how stream temperature response Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures First, because the models are statistical rather warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. Amount of uncertainty in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were have substantial. Which required estimation of several data inputs Information only on official, websites... Flow-Management practices in the models were developed, Willamette River basin 22 ) ( U.S. Geological Survey 2019! Or and building optimized multiple linear regression models were developed, Willamette is..., these models can not effectively predict all of the best model fits in the Willamette River measured. Its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette in cubic feet per second, possibly before the weekend,... ( FCHL ), which required estimation of several data inputs, or ( 14211720 ) data are are. 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